With a market capitalization of about $ 52 billion, similar to what GM, Ford or Nissan have today, no one doubts that Tesla is a brand of cars that has absolutely enthusiastic customers and that in some way leads the way to the car until today. electric, how it also seems certain that sooner or later the cars will be electric or they will not be.
What discounts the market to give Tesla a valuation of 52 billion when it is still far from having the size of GM, Ford or Nissan?
Obviously part of what the market is discounting today is that Tesla to be dominating today the electric car segment will end up in the future being a relevant player in the automotive industry.
So the first question we should ask ourselves is very simple. Does Tesla clearly dominate the electric car market today?
The answer you have in the table that we attach to the beginning of the post where you can see the sales of electric cars, with the detail of the best-selling models by geographical area.
Tesla, with its two S and X models dominates the North American market, but is far from being a dominant player in the European or Chinese market, two markets that at the level of units sold are today superior in size to the North American market.
Assuming that in the near future all the cars manufactured are electric and that Tesla maintains the market share it has today (12% of the total electric car market) means that it would manufacture some 8-9 million units a year, a figure similar to the number of units manufactured by General Motors today.
Bearing in mind that the automotive market is a competitive industry with narrow margins, it is difficult to foresee that Tesla will have higher profit margins than the rest of the manufacturers when it is producing 8 million vehicles a year, assuming that it is already very much to assume that Tesla can put time the ability to produce that number of vehicles, something that does not need to tell you is not easy.
So the question of the million that remains to be resolved is to know if Tesla will really be able to keep the market share it currently has in the electric car market now that little by little the competition is increasing.
By the way, a piece of information:
Sales during the month of April of Teslas in California (the market with the highest penetration and most mature for the company) would have fallen by 24% compared to the previous year.